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Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races?*
Paul Collier 1 and Anke Hoeffler 1
  1 Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, Manor Road Building, Oxford OX1 3UQ, UK (e-mail: paul.collier@economics.ox.ac.uk; anke.hoeffler@economics.ox.ac.uk)

  *The authors would like to thank Ron Smith, Christopher Bowdler and two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions and acknowledge ESRC funding from the New Security Challenges programme.

Copyright 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
KEYWORDS
H56 • F35 • O10

Abstract

Abstract
          I. Introduction
          II. Modelling military expenditure
          III. An implication: neighbourhood arms races
          IV. An application: the effectiveness of military expenditureAppendix

Using global data for the period 1960–99, we model military expenditure. Neighbours' military spending and development aid are important determinants of military expenditure. An implication of the model is that there are regional arms races which are fuelled by aid. Potentially, aid is encouraging a 'regional public bad'. There may, however, be an offsetting public good effect if military spending deters rebellions. In a simultaneous equation model, we find no deterrence effect of spending on the risk of civil war. Hence, there appears to be no regional public good effect offsetting the public bad arising from a neighbourhood arms race.


Final Manuscript Received: March 2006

DIGITAL OBJECT IDENTIFIER (DOI)
10.1111/j.1468-0084.2006.00439.x About DOI

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