From climate change to population change: the need to consider annual life cycles

ABSTRACT

Detailed studies of organisms' life cycles are important for understanding population response to climate change. However, in general one cannot make strong inference about the overall population response from such studies, unless the full annual cycle of the species in question is covered. Here, we present a theoretical framework for the understanding of population response to climate change. Owing to the combined effects of demography, intraspecific feedback, and a possible use of environmental cues, environmentally induced changes in survival and/or reproduction do not necessarily lead to a straightforward change in population size. This framework can guide our thinking about how abiotic conditions work their way to the population level. More specifically, it can help us to identify mechanisms that need to be examined when predicting population change in response to expected climate change.