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Wiley InterScience

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)

Volume 55 Issue 3, Pages 317 - 330

Published Online: 6 Apr 2006

© 2010 The Royal Statistical Society and Blackwell Publishing Ltd



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Design and evaluation of prophylactic interventions using infectious disease incidence data from close contact groups
Yang Yang 1 , and Ira M. Longini, Jr 2 and M. Elizabeth Halloran 2
  1 Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, USA
  2 Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, and University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Correspondence to Yang Yang, Office 505, FXB Building, Harvard School of Public Health, 651 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
E-mail: yangyang@sdac.harvard.edu
Copyright 2006 Royal Statistical Society
KEYWORDS
Antiviral agent • Community trial • Infectious disease • Intervention efficacy • Left truncation

ABSTRACT

Summary. Prophylaxis of contacts of infectious cases such as household members and treatment of infectious cases are methods to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. We develop a method based on maximum likelihood to estimate the efficacy of such interventions and the transmission probabilities. We consider both the design with prospective follow-up of close contact groups and the design with ascertainment of close contact groups by an index case as well as randomization by groups and by individuals. We compare the designs by using simulations. We estimate the efficacy of the influenza antiviral agent oseltamivir in reducing susceptibility and infectiousness in two case-ascertained household trials.

[Received March 2005. Revised October 2005]

DIGITAL OBJECT IDENTIFIER (DOI)
10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00539.x About DOI

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