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Wiley InterScience | ||||||||||||||
  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)Volume 168 Issue 3, Pages 615 - 627 Published Online: 9 Jun 2005 © 2010 The Royal Statistical Society and Blackwell Publishing Ltd Published on behalf of the Royal Statistical Society
Abstract | References | Full Text: HTML, PDF (Size: 110K) | Related Articles | Citation Tracking  De Morgan in the prehistory of statistical hypothesis testing Copyright 2005 Royal Statistical Society KEYWORDS Bayes's theorem • Boole • Concordance • De Morgan • Distribution of a sum • Hypothesis testing • Laplace • Planetary orbits ABSTRACTSummary. Whereas the research of the 19th-century mathematician Augustus De Morgan in formal logic is fairly familiar to historians of mathematics, his work in probability is largely unknown to the modern reader. For this reason, few would be aware that this work contains a self-admitted error in probabilistic reasoning. This mistake is intriguing not only because it features in the work of someone who was so expert in logic but also because it appears to be an early example of hypothesis testing, which was a topic of much controversy in the development of mathematical statistics in the 20th century. The paper examines the mathematical and historical details of De Morgan's error. [Received February 2004. Revised December 2004] | 
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 | Significance |
Try to forecast the results of 10 different events, some sporting, some cultural, some just odd, that will take place between May and July 2010. Have Fun! | |
