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Wiley InterScience | ||||||||||||||
  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)Volume 65 Issue 2, Pages 331 - 355 Published Online: 25 Apr 2003 © 2010 The Royal Statistical Society and Blackwell Publishing Ltd Published on behalf of the Royal Statistical Society
Abstract | References | Full Text: HTML, PDF (Size: 234K) | Related Articles | Citation Tracking  Optimal dynamic treatment regimes Copyright 2003 Royal Statistical Society KEYWORDS Adaptive strategies • Causal inference • Dynamic programming • Multistage decisions ABSTRACTSummary.A dynamic treatment regime is a list of decision rules, one per time interval, for how the level of treatment will be tailored through time to an individual's changing status. The goal of this paper is to use experimental or observational data to estimate decision regimes that result in a maximal mean response. To explicate our objective and to state the assumptions, we use the potential outcomes model. The method proposed makes smooth parametric assumptions only on quantities that are directly relevant to the goal of estimating the optimal rules. We illustrate the methodology proposed via a small simulation. [Read before The Royal Statistical Society at a meeting organized by the Research Section on Wednesday, October 16th, 2002, Professor D. Firth in the Chair] | 
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 | Significance |
Try to forecast the results of 10 different events, some sporting, some cultural, some just odd, that will take place between May and July 2010. Have Fun! | |
