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Wiley InterScience | ||
  Risk AnalysisVolume 21 Issue 4, Pages 579 - 584 Published Online: 27 May 2002 ©2009 Society for Risk Analysis Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis
Abstract | Full Text: PDF (Size: 61K) | Related Articles | Citation Tracking  Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Risk Analysis, and Bayesian Uncertainty Assessment Copyright 2001 Society for Risk Analysis KEYWORDS Bayesian analysis • epidemiologic methods • Monte Carlo analysis • relative risk • risk assessment ABSTRACTStandard statistical methods understate the uncertainty one should attach to effect estimates obtained from observational data. Among the methods used to address this problem are sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo risk analysis (MCRA), and Bayesian uncertainty assessment. Estimates from MCRAs have been presented as if they were valid frequentist or Bayesian results, but examples show that they need not be either in actual applications. It is concluded that both sensitivity analyses and MCRA should begin with the same type of prior specification effort as Bayesian analysis. |
