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Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning
William J.Sutherland1*, Mark J.Bailey2, Ian P.Bainbridge3, TomBrereton4, Jaimie T. A.Dick5, JoannaDrewitt3, Nicholas K.Dulvy6, Nicholas R.Dusic7, Robert P.Freckleton8, Kevin J.Gaston8, Pam M.Gilder9, Rhys E.Green1,10, A. LouiseHeathwaite11, Sally M.Johnson12, David W.Macdonald13, RogerMitchell14, DanielOsborn15, Roger P.Owen16, JulesPretty17, Stephanie V.Prior1, HavardProsser18, Andrew S.Pullin19, PaulRose20, AndrewStott21, TomTew22, Chris D.Thomas23, Des B. A.Thompson12, Juliet A.Vickery24, MattWalker25, CliveWalmsley26, StuartWarrington27, Andrew R.Watkinson28, Rich J.Williams29, RosieWoodroffe30 and Harry J.Woodroof31
1Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK; 2Natural Environment Research Council, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, CEH-Oxford, Mansfield Road, Oxford, OX1 3SR, UK; 3Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate, The Scottish Government, Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 6QQ,UK; 4Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham, Dorset, BH20 5QP, UK; 5School of Biological Sciences, Medical and Biological Centre, Queen's University Belfast, 97 Lisburn Road, Belfast, BT9 7BL, N. Ireland, UK; 6Centre for Environment, Fisheries & Aquaculture Sciences, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR33 OHT,UK; 7British Ecological Society, 26 Blades Court, Deodar Road, London, SW15 2NU, UK; 8Department of Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN,UK; 9Environment Agency, Rio House, Aztec West, Bristol, BS32 4UD, UK; 10Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, SG19 2 DL,UK; 11Centre for Sustainable Water Management, The Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ,UK; 12Scottish Natural Heritage, Silvan House, 3rd Floor East, 231 Costorphine Road, Edinburgh EH12 7AT, UK; 13Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, University of Oxford, Department of Zoology, Tubney House, Abingdon Road, Tubney, Abingdon, OX13 5QL,UK; 14Arcadia, 192 Sloane Street, London, SW1X 9QX, UK; 15Science to Policy and Public Sector Liaison, Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1EU, UK; 16Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Greyhope House, Greyhope Road, Torry, Aberdeen, AB11 9RD,UK; 17Department of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK; 18Welsh Assembly Government, Cathays Park, Cardiff, CF10 3NQ, UK; 19Centre for Evidence-Based Conservation, School of Environment and Natural Resources, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2UW, UK; 20JNCC, Monkstone House, City Road, Peterborough, PE1 1JY, UK; 21Natural Environment Science Division, Defra, 1/05 Temple Quay House, Bristol, BS1 6EB,UK; 22Natural England, Northminster House, Peterborough, PE1 1UA, UK; 23Department of Biology (Area 18), University of York, PO Box 373, York, YO10 5YW, UK; 24British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2 PU, UK; 25New Scientist, Lacon House, 84 Theobald's Road, London, WC1X 8NS, UK; 26Countryside Council for Wales, Maes y Ffynnon, Penrhosgarnedd, Bangor, LL57 2DW, UK; 27The National Trust, East of England Regional Office, Westley Bottom, Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk IP33 3WD, UK; 28Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK; 29Microsoft Research Ltd, 7 J. J. Thomson Ave, Cambridge, CB3 0FB, UK; 30Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY; 31Horizon Scanning Centre, Government Office for Science, Bay 535, Kingsgate House, 66–74 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SW, UK
Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change.
2.
A total of 35 representatives from organizations involved in environmental policy, academia, scientific journalism and horizon scanning were asked to use wide consultation to identify the future novel or step changes in threats to, and opportunities for, biodiversity that might arise in the UK up to 2050, but that had not been important in the recent past. At least 452 people were consulted.
3.
Cases for 195 submitted issues were distributed to all participants for comments and additions. All issues were scored (probability, hazard, novelty and overall score) prior to a 2-day workshop. Shortlisting to 41 issues and then the final 25 issues, together with refinement of these issues, took place at the workshop during another two rounds of discussion and scoring.
4.
We provide summaries of the 25 shortlisted issues and outline the research needs.
5.
We suggest that horizon scanning incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science is used by environmental policy makers and researchers. This can be used to identify gaps in knowledge and policy, and to identify future key issues for biodiversity, including those arising from outside the domains of ecology and biodiversity.
6.
Synthesis and applications. Horizon scanning can be used by environmental policy makers and researchers to identify gaps in knowledge and policy. Drawing on the experience, expertise and research of policy advisors, academics and journalists, this exercise helps set the agenda for policy, practice and research.
Received 13 October 2007; accepted 21 February 2008 Handling Editor: Paul Thompson
This Virtual Issue accompanies our latest Special Profile: Challenges and Prospects for Applied Ecology in China, now available online
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